“As I look ahead, I am filled with foreboding; like the Roman, I seem to see ‘the River Tiber foaming with much blood’”.

– Enoch Powell

I’ve had a thought recently, and unlike many of my other tirades and ramblings, this one doesn’t come from a story I’ve read or a personal experience I’ve had. I have been pondering about how complex the world is. It feels like even just the simplest thing like a pen or a water bottle goes through several processes, countries, and factories to become the items we use and then quickly dispose of. Just in terms of trade, the world is more connected than it has ever been before, and political turmoil aside, it does not seem like this is going to change anytime soon, and that’s just focusing on economics.

Then I think about the public transportation system that I use in southern Germany every day. I am currently taking classes at university to learn about transportation infrastructure and planning and still find the system in my city confusing enough. It takes armies of people, companies, and teams to get all the different trains, buses, and subways working on time. This then gets me thinking about roads and streets and how they need to be designed for pedestrians, cyclists, drivers, and public transportation. Underneath they need to have cables for electricity and Wi-Fi as well as pipes for fresh and dirty water.

Forgetting infrastructure and concrete for a second, the political system behind everything is also unfathomably complex. Welfare, taxes, permits, and everything else related takes up stacks of paperwork of rules and regulations. It is no wonder that lawyers and law as a profession are basically just an entire group of people who read up on all of our rules in society and see if actions taken are legal or not. Then they have to read up on what the punishment may be taken if an action was in fact against the law.

All of this and I haven’t even mentioned the complexity behind automobiles, both electric and internal combustion. I haven’t mentioned computers and computing, which is another beast entirely. And the airline industry, which again is a whole complex system that tens if not hundreds of millions rely on each year. I think the reader gets the point; the modern world is extremely complex. This did not happen overnight, rather the complexity of the modern world represents the culmination of all human history, innovation, and technology. The industrial revolution was certainly a huge acceleration of complexity, but not one that we couldn’t overcome. However, I think we are marching toward a disaster without any caution, namely the world is only becoming more complex, and I don’t think the future generations will be able to handle it.

I cannot help but quote from the late British politician, Enoch Powell. In his infamous 1968 speech dubbed the “Rivers of Blood” speech. In it he alludes to a prophecy from Virgil’s Aeneid. “As I look ahead, I am filled with foreboding; like the Roman, I seem to see ‘the River Tiber foaming with much blood’”. Like Powell and like the Roman, let me be the first to say that I fear the River Tiber will foam with much blood.

As mentioned by my co-conspirator Garrett L. White, AI is a technology that we both approach with much skepticism. Personal opinions aside, it seems clear to me that AI is being adopted rapidly in any place where it can be, workers be damned. If automation leads to better profit margins and to more efficiency, workers be damned. AI is going to be pushed until it can’t be anymore, because that is how humanity uses technology. We are much more likely to overuse technology until it makes us sick than to underutilize it.

I can imagine that the reader may at this point be confused. Sure, things are getting more and more complex, but it has never not been this way, why would anything be different this time? This is where I am going to have to dive into a difficult topic, and long story short it is all about demographics.

If the world were to keep its current level of complexity, that would be difficult, but not impossible. We are somewhat managing now, and we certainly could continue to manage in the future. However, this is not the case. As established, or at least assumed, the world and its systems are only getting more complex, and I do not think the future population of earth will be equipped for it.

Many have seen on the news that there seems to be more plane crashes, near misses, and incidents at airports. A lot of this has to do with relaxed standards for airport personnel. Thanks to no child left behind, a silly idea in hindsight and at the time, school standards are laughable in the United States and even still test scores are going down. American children are not graduating with the best education that could have gotten, rather a lot of time is being spent on babysitting the bottom decile and on making sure everyone graduates, whether earned or not.

And then there is a level of vocational knowledge and mastery that is not being passed on to the next generation. Whether intentional or accidentally, it seems like a larger number of companies than I would expect are all kept running by half a dozen old guys who are total geniuses in their field. When these old folks retire, many companies are going to be turned to the young and to HR and quite frankly they are not going to make it.

So far, this is really only the icing on the cake, the main issue comes when looking at who will be around in the next hundred years. Let me preface this by saying that I am not trying to make any political or value statement on what I am about to say, I am just aiming to look at the numbers and extrapolate from there.

The most developed, advanced, and best educated countries in the world are not having nearly enough children. The entire Western world has sub replacement fertility and east Asia is surprisingly ever worse. The country which currently has the largest population is India, which has an average IQ of around 75. Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the few regions with a birth rate above replacement level, and they have an average IQ of around 66. The US military, who takes pretty much anybody they can get, won’t take anyone with an IQ of less than 83. I think just by doing simple math, we can see that there may be a problem going forward. The average IQ in the West is around 100 and we are currently dealing with problems related to system complexity. I think just maintaining systems is clearly enough work for us to deal with, but if the world shifts to being made up of people who have an IQ of less than 83, these systems will not survive.

Sub-Saharan Africa remains one of the poorest regions on earth, despite large amounts of money being poured in by the UN and other international government bodies. India has increased its economy mainly due to scale and the fact that it has over a billion workers. GDP per capita has increased fairly slowly, and especially when compared to other rags to riches stories like South Korea, Poland, and even China.

To add to this, Africa and much of Asia are food insecure and have to import most of their food from North America and Europe. The war in Ukraine caused a scare as much of northern Africa imports their wheat from Ukraine. Fortunately, Ukraine has still been able to keep up its agriculture exports, though with less certainty. If flying becomes less reliable, that would be annoying, but people will still manage. If the internet gets worse, people can manage. But food? This is not a system that we can afford to go wrong. It is clearly the case that our planet currently has a lot of people and as long as we can keep up our hyper-efficient farming methods, this is not a problem, but again, agriculture is a very complex and difficult system. If the food system faces hiccups, billions of people could be left without food.

It is now where I really feel like the Roman watching the River Tiber foam. The poorest and least educated regions of the world and having the most children, highly educated and developed countries aren’t hardly having any kids. Most of the world relies on systems that are complex and run by Westerners. As the world runs out of Westerners and smart people in general, the world may be left with billions of people who even the US military wouldn’t use. The devastation could be immeasurable. Food systems may collapse or at least lose magnitudes of efficiency and scale. There could be mass famine. Flying may cease, computers will have been a dream, and AI may become a footnote. Certainly, space flight will exist only in the imagination of some, it will be impossible to pursue. The few left who have the skills to figure these systems out will have their hands full trying to make sure no one starves and that the very basics of society’s systems function.

I don’t want to be a pessimist, but I really think that unless something changes, the world in one hundred years is going to look a lot worse than it does now. I do not see how the increasing complexity of the world can be managed and run effectively given the people who will be around in a hundred years. Now, let me make sure that I am clear. Every single human being is made in the image of God and I am not making any statement on value. Just as God loves athletic people as well as overweight people, so too is it with intelligence, He loves the smart as well as the dumb. As someone who has dabbled in psychology, IQ is a great measure of intelligence and is a great predictor of future material success, but it is not a statement of value. IQ is scientific, being made in the image of God is greater and, on another level, entirely.

But again, I don’t see why we should assume the world is going to become a better place in the future. In almost every metric everything is getting worse and there seems to be no appetite to solve it. If the reader disagrees or has anything to add, I really do welcome comments and discussion. I am curious to see if anyone else has made this prediction or if anyone else also has the same fears as I do. Please do feel free to engage with this topic.

Unlike most of my contemplations I don’t have a positive spin or way of ending this on a high note. All I can say is that I trust in God and trust in His plan. He is greater and we can trust that He will keep us. That is why my faith is not in AI, progress, or even humanity. My faith is in Jesus Christ alone, and I pray that the dear reader can say the same.

“God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble. Therefore will not we fear, though the earth be removed, and though the mountains be carried into the midst of the sea; Though the waters thereof roar and be troubled, though the mountains shake with the swelling thereof. Selah.” – Psalm 46:1-3 (KJV)